Geopolitical strife and uncertainty pushed prices for Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate to year-to-date highs in early April. Values have spent the time since retreating, declining by 2.68 percent and West Texas 2.45 percent respectively between April and June.
This decrease is largely attributed to China’s recent interest rate cut and reduced crude oil imports, suggesting a potential dip in demand. Additionally, global refining margins weakened, and concerns over lower second-quarter earnings forecasts from major oil companies added to the downward pressure on prices.
Looking ahead, FocusEconomics panelists forecast a 10 percent decline in spot prices for oil over the next decade, while gas prices are expected to remain below highs set in 2022, with potential declines in Asia and Europe and steady prices in the US. Increased US LNG export capacity could lead to price convergence among regions by 2025.
The five top oil and gas stocks on the TSX and TSXV listed below saw share price growth over the first half of 2024. All year-to-date performance and share price data was obtained on August 28, 2024, using TradingView’s stock screener, and the top oil and gas stocks listed had market caps above C$10 million at that time.
1. Sintana Energy (TSXV:SEI)
Year-to-date gain: 236.36 percent; market cap: C$413.8 million; share price: C$1.11
Sintana Energy, an oil and gas exploration and development company, operates across five highly prospective onshore and offshore petroleum exploration licenses in Namibia and Colombia.
Share prices saw early year tailwinds after the company released two updates on exploration activity in Namibia’s Orange Basin. During the exploration campaign of Petroleum Exploration License 83 (PEL 83) two significant light oil discoveries were made in January.
February saw more share price growth when Sintana was listed on the TSX Venture 50 ranking as the top energy performer.
In June, Sintana finalized its acquisition of a 49 percent interest in Giraffe Energy Investments as per an agreement dated April 24, 2024. Giraffe Energy holds a 33 percent stake in petroleum exploration license 79 (PEL 79), which includes blocks 2815 and 2915, in Namibia.
The remaining 67 percent of PEL 79 is owned by the National Petroleum of Namibia, which also acts as the operator.
2. Arrow Exploration (TSXV:AXL)
Year-to-date gain: 87.5 percent; market cap: C$171.51 million; share price: C$0.60
Arrow Exploration, through its wholly owned subsidiary Carrao Energy, operates in Colombia with a focus on developing its portfolio of Colombian oil assets. The company’s strategy targets the expansion of oil production in key basins, including the Llanos Basin, Middle Magdalena Valley and Putumayo Basin.
Arrow Exploration holds high working interests in its assets, which are predominantly linked to Brent pricing.
In June, Arrow announced that it successfully brought the first of four planned Ubaque horizontal wells into production. The Carrizales Norte B pad (CNB HZ-1) well is currently producing 3,150 barrels of oil per day (bpd) gross, with 1,575 bpd net to Arrow, and has a water cut of less than 1 percent.
The news sent Arrow’s share price upwards significantly, and it has maintained that momentum since. The company released its Q2 2024 results on August 29, and reported total oil and gas revenue of C$15.1 million for the period, up 47 percent year over year. Its current production is 5,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d).
3. Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO)
Year-to-date gain: 34.18 percent; market cap: C$54.75 billion; current share price: C$102.19
Calgary-based Imperial Oil is a prominent Canadian energy company involved in exploration, production, refining and marketing of petroleum products. With a history spanning over 140 years, Imperial operates diverse assets across Canada, including oil sands, conventional crude oil and natural gas assets.
On February 2, Imperial released its Q4 2023 results which highlighted upstream production of 452,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, “marking its highest level in over three decades.”
Additionally, Imperial initiated steam injection at Cold Lake Grand Rapids, pioneering the industry’s first deployment of a solvent assisted SAGD technology. Downstream operations performed strongly, with refinery capacity utilization reaching 94 percent, following the successful completion of the largest planned turnaround at the Sarnia site.
In its Q2 2024 results, Imperial reported a quarterly net income of C$1.13 billion, with operating cash flows of C$1.63 billion and C$1.51 billion when excluding working capital. It went on to note that upstream production reached 404,000 gross boe/d, its highest second-quarter production in over 30 years.
According to the company, the Kearl project matched its highest-ever second-quarter production at 255,000 gross boe/d, with Imperial Oil’s share being 181,000 barrels. Cold Lake also performed strongly with a production of 147,000 barrels per day, and the company achieved first oil at Grand Rapids.
Additionally, the company renewed its annual share repurchase program, aiming to buy back up to 5 percent of outstanding common shares.
4. Athabasca Oil (TSX:ATH)
Year-to-date gain: 30.4 percent; market cap: C$2.98 billion; current share price: C$5.49
Athabasca Oil Corporation, a Canadian energy company, focuses on developing thermal and light oil assets within Alberta’s Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The company has established a substantial land base with high-quality resources.
Athabasca Oil’s light oil operations are managed through its private subsidiary, Duvernay Energy, in which the company holds a 70 percent equity interest.
At the end of July, Athabasca released its Q2 2024 results, which noted that average Q2 production was 37,621 boe/d, resulting in an increase in its annual production guidance to 36,000 to 37,000 boe/d. The company also achieved record adjusted funds flow of C$166 million and cash flow from operating activities of C$135 million.
5. Condor Energies (TSX:CDR)
Year-to-date gain: 23.94 percent; market cap: C$99.4 million; current share price: C$1.76
Condor Energies concentrates on the exploration, development and production of natural gas resources across Turkey, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Notably, the company is currently building Central Asia’s inaugural liquefied natural gas facility.
In late January Condor secured a natural gas allocation from the Government of Kazakhstan for its maiden modular liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facility. The gas allocation will be instrumental in liquefying feed gas to produce up to 350 metric tons per day of LNG, equivalent to about 210,000 gallons per day, the company said.
In March, the energy company began a production enhancement operation for eight natural gas-condensate fields in Uzbekistan. Gas output will be directed to the domestic market through state entity agreements. Condor has agreed to cover project costs and receive a share of the generated revenues.
In July 2024, Condor signed its first LNG Framework Agreement for producing and utilizing liquefied natural gas to power rail locomotives in Kazakhstan.
In mid-August, Condor released its Q2 report, which highlighted production in Uzbekistan that averaged 10,052 boe/d, consisting of 59.03 million cubic feet per day and 213 barrels of oil per day of condensate. Q2 sales of gas and condensate from Uzbekistan totaled C$18.95 million.
The results also noted that the company launched a multi-well workover campaign across eight gas-condensate fields in Uzbekistan in June.
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
