All eyes in the investment world were on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) today (August 28) as the tech giant prepared to release its eagerly anticipated Q2 2025 earnings report after the closing bell.
Amid growing concerns about overvaluation and potential market correction, Nvidia’s performance over the last few quarters has captured the attention of investors and analysts alike.
With high stakes and major implications for the broader market, the release of Nvidia’s Q2 earnings report is poised to have a substantial impact on the company’s trajectory and the tech sector as a whole.
Contextualizing Nvidia’s Q2 2025 results
While all the major tech stocks have seen dramatic price swings, Nvidia has been in a league of its own. After its Q1 earnings report in May exceeded analyst expectations, Nvidia has seen dramatic price fluctuations in its stock value throughout the summer. Investors have responded to a confluence of factors that have created uncertainty and volatility in the markets, such as fluctuating inflation data on a weekly basis and the ongoing speculation surrounding the overvaluation of AI stocks.
The technology sector has experienced a meteoric rise in recent years, with many tech companies achieving impressive growth and profitability. Nvidia has led the pack, accumulating a market capitalization of over US$3 trillion since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. Its stock price has also grown by over 160 percent year-to-date. However, this has led to concerns that AI stocks may be overvalued and susceptible to a correction.
Shortly after New Research analyst Pierre Ferragu downgraded Nvidia from “buy” to “neutral” on July 5, the company’s stock price exhibited heightened volatility, highlighted by a series of sharp reversals throughout the month.
Ferragu stated at the time that Nvidia stock is “getting fully valued” and that further growth “will only materialize in a bull case, in which the outlook beyond 2025 increases materially, and we do not have the conviction on this scenario playing out yet.”
By July 30, Nvidia had fallen by a total of 23.1 percent from its highest valuation that month. However, it rebounded the next day, adding US$329 billion to its valuation and ending July with a new record for single-day earnings.
Nvidia’s outsized position on the S&P 500 stock index has also been cause for concern. The company accounts for 6.67 percent of the market-capitalization-weighted index, trailing Apple by just 0.27 percent. Bloomgberg’s John Authers has likened Nvidia’s earnings reports to a macro event akin to the August 5 market rout that led the index to experience its largest single-day loss since 2022. On that day, Nvidia’s losses exceeded 15 percent compared to its closing price on August 2.
Challenges ahead for Nvidia
In addition to the stock market turbulence, Nvidia is grappling with critical factors that could impact its business. Sources for The Information reported on August 5 that engineering issues would delay the release of the company’s highly anticipated Blackwell chip series, adding pressure to an already turbulent market landscape.
The Blackwell delay has exacerbated concerns about Nvidia’s ability to deliver on the promises of its technology and meet the high expectations placed upon it by investors. The US Department of Justice is also reportedly investigating Nvidia for anti-competitive practices.
Nvidia’s customer base, which includes billion-dollar companies such as Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta (NASDAQ:META), and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), has invested significantly in Nvidia’s AI infrastructure, leading investors to grow increasingly cautious when these companies report earnings that often highlight further investment plans rather than immediate returns.
Analysts speculated ahead of Nvidia’s Q2 earnings report today that it could cause an over US$300 billion swing in its shares, with an anticipated stock move of nearly 10 percent — the largest in the last three years. Analysts predicted that earnings per share would increase to US$0.64 and revenue would reach US$28.7 billion.
NVIDIA’s Q2 results come in above analyst predictions
Nvidia’s Q2 2025 results for Q2 ending July 28, 2024 were released as the markets closed on Wednesday and revealed quarterly revenue of US$30.04 billion, a 15 percent increase from Q1 and a 122 percent increase year over year.
The company cited demand for its Hopper graphic processing units and anticipation for the Blackwell series as drivers of its performance in the second quarter. Data center revenue was US$26.3 billion, up 16 percent from last quarter and 154 percent year-over-year.
Earnings per share came in at US$0.67, 12 percent higher than Q1 and a 168 percent boost from Q2 2024. Both revenue and earnings per share came in above analyst expectations.
Nvidia also announced a second share repurchase authorization worth US$50 billion, adding to the US$7.5 billion remaining from its repurchase authorization in Q1 and bringing the total available to US$57.5 billion.
For its Q3 2025 period, the company projects revenue of around US$32.5 billion, plus or minus 2 percent.
Nvidia’s share price closed at US$125.61. The market’s initial reaction sent Nvidia stock up by over 2 percent immediately after the closing bell, only for it to fall by nearly 10 percent roughly 30 minutes after the report’s release. Its share price at 5:00 p.m. EST was US$120.50, a decline of over 4 percent.
Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
